Are Home Prices Really as High as They Seem? What Buyers Should Know

Do home prices still look high on paper and in news headlines? Sometimes those numbers can be misleading.

These kinds of price reports often rely on list prices, and a growing number of sellers are testing the market by listing their homes at prices buyers won't pay.

For example, nearly 6% of listings were pulled off the market in July without selling, according to Redfin. This is up sharply from 3% or so in late 2020.

Fortunately there are more accurate ways to get a handle on what homes in your market are actually selling for.

...in as little as 3 minutes — no credit impact

Home sales are near historic lows, even with 'high' prices

Here's the disconnect: existing-home sales have been running at about 4.26 million annualized as of July 2026, a pace last seen when the market was still climbing out of the 2008 housing crash. Compare that to January 2021, when sales peaked near 7 million.

If home prices genuinely reflected what buyers were willing to pay, sales volume would track more closely with pricing. Instead, list prices in many markets have stayed elevated while actual transactions have fallen sharply.

This can create a market where a growing share of sellers are asking more than buyers are willing to pay, and buyers are largely sitting it out rather than meeting sellers where they are.

In other words, this can create a gap between the prices buyers see and the prices they pay.

Why nearly 6% of listings didn't sell in July

The clearest evidence of that gap is what happens to listings that don't sell. In July 2026, nearly 6% of U.S. home listings were pulled off the market by their sellers, per Redfin data. That share has trended higher for roughly a year, up from lows around 3.35% in December 2020.

A delisting isn't necessarily a sign a seller has given up. Often it means the opposite: a seller tested a price, didn't get offers close to it, and pulled the listing rather than cut the price.

Some relist later at a similar price, hoping conditions change. Others relist at something closer to what buyers were actually signaling they'd pay.

Either way, a rising delisting rate tells buyers something useful: a real, measurable share of "for sale" inventory reflects a seller's asking price more than the home's actual market value.

List price is a starting point, not a market report

If list price isn't a reliable guide to what a home is actually worth, what is? The most useful answer is comparable sales: What similar homes in the same area have actually sold for recently, not what they're currently listed for.

A few practical ways to get at that:

• Ask your agent for recent closed sales, not just active listings. Active listings show what sellers want; closed sales show what buyers actually paid.
• Pay attention to days on market. A home listed for months with no price change is a strong candidate for a lower offer than asking.
• Understand what happens if your offer and the appraisal don't match. If you're offering close to list price but the appraisal comes in lower, your appraisal contingency in your offer should protect you.
• Don't skip the inspection to compete on price. What a home inspection covers is worth knowing before you consider waiving one to make an offer more competitive.

Not every market is the same

National headlines about home prices tend to flatten a lot of real variation. Beneath the national numbers, some markets are already seeing genuine price declines — Seattle and parts of Texas and Florida among them — even while other regions continue to see modest gains.

That matters because the list-price-vs-reality gap isn't uniform. In a softening market, list prices may already be adjusting downward, and sellers may be more realistic about what they'll accept.

In a tighter market, the gap between asking and actual sale price may be smaller. This article breaks down local factors worth checking for your specific area rather than relying on national coverage alone.

...in as little as 3 minutes — no credit impact

A wave of reluctant sellers may be coming

There's another dynamic worth exploring, even though it's harder to see in day-to-day data: a large share of current homeowners bought during the 2020–2021 price spike, when rates were near historic lows and prices jumped quickly. Many are reluctant to sell now, since doing so means giving up a mortgage rate they're unlikely to see again.

But roughly five years out from a purchase is also, historically, about when life circumstances start pushing people to move again regardless of their rate. Sometimes it's a new job, a growing family, a divorce, or simply outgrowing a starter home.

Some sellers currently testing high prices and pulling listings when they don't sell may not have that flexibility indefinitely. As more owners from that 2020–2021 cohort approach circumstances that force a move, more realistic pricing, and more real inventory, could follow.

That's not a guarantee, and timing it precisely isn't realistic. But it's reasonable context if you've been holding off entirely because current asking prices feel disconnected from what you're willing to pay.

What this means if you're shopping right now

Put together, the data points toward more negotiating room than list prices alone suggest, but only for buyers positioned to act on it:

• Don't rule out a home based on list price alone, especially if it's been sitting for a while. Ask about price history and days on market before deciding it's out of reach.
• Watch for relisted homes. A property pulled from the market and relisted later, especially at a lower price, often signals a seller who's become more realistic.
• Get pre-approved before you start seriously shopping. When a genuinely motivated seller shows up, a strong, verified pre-approval lets you move quickly and negotiate with more credibility. Better's guide to the steps of buying a house walks through what comes next.
• Use Better's mortgage calculator to know your real range before touring homes, so you can recognize a fair offer opportunity when list price and likely sale price clearly diverge.

Frequently Asked Questions

Every home I look at is listed above what I can afford. Does that mean I actually can't afford to buy right now?

Not necessarily. List prices reflect what sellers are asking, not always what homes ultimately sell for. With nearly 6% of listings going unsold and pulled from the market in July, a meaningful share of asking prices don't hold up. Checking closed sale prices for similar homes gives a more accurate picture of what you might actually pay.

A home I liked has been listed for 4 months with no price cut. Is that seller ever going to negotiate?

It's impossible to know for certain, but a long time on market without a price adjustment is often a sign the seller is testing a price rather than reflecting firm market value. It's reasonable to make an offer below asking, particularly if comparable homes have sold for less.

If a house isn't selling, why doesn't the seller just lower the price?

Sellers often anchor to what they paid, what neighbors sold for during the 2020–2021 price spike, or simply what they hope to get. Rather than accept a lower number, many choose to wait, relist, or pull the listing entirely, even when the current price isn't attracting offers.

Is it risky to make a low offer on a home that's been sitting on the market a long time?

The main risk is the seller declining or countering rather than accepting, which isn't a serious downside for you as the buyer. It's generally not risky to make a reasonable, comp-supported offer below list price, especially on a listing showing clear signs of being overpriced for its market.

How do I find out what a home actually sold for, not just what it's listed for?

Your real estate agent has access to closed sales data through the MLS, which isn't always public. Public county records also show final sale prices for closed transactions, and many listing sites show sold prices for recently closed homes in the same area.

Are home prices actually falling anywhere, or is that just a few isolated markets?

It's more than a couple of isolated cases. Seattle and parts of Texas and Florida are already seeing real year-over-year price declines beneath the national averages, even as other regions continue to see modest growth. Local conditions vary significantly, which is why checking your specific market matters more than national headlines.

Should I wait for more sellers to be forced to sell, or buy now while inventory is limited?

There's no universal answer. Waiting for a larger wave of motivated sellers is speculative and not guaranteed on any particular timeline. If you find a home that fits your budget and needs now, especially one showing signs of being overpriced relative to the market, that may be worth acting on rather than waiting for a shift that may take years.

If a listing gets pulled from the market, does that mean the seller changed their mind about selling?

Not necessarily. Many delisted homes come back on the market later, sometimes at a different price. A delisting is often a sign the seller didn't get the offers they wanted, not that they've abandoned the idea of selling altogether.

The bottom line

The headline number on a listing isn't always a reliable guide to what a home will actually sell for, and current data backs that up: sales remain historically low, a rising share of listings aren't finding buyers at their asking price, and some markets are already seeing real declines beneath the national picture.

For buyers who've been discouraged by list prices alone, that gap is worth paying attention to.

The best way to know what's realistic in your specific market and budget is to get pre-approved and start from real numbers rather than headline ones.

...in as little as 3 minutes — no credit impact

Data referenced in this article is sourced from Redfin's existing-home sales and delisting data, as reported by Axios in August 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to lend.